How to calculate win percentages on dice rolls in Warhammer 40,000 or Age of Sigmar?
Calculate a probability or statistic related to actions in Warhammer 40k and Age of Sigmar
Probabilities and statistics related to "threshold" type actions
"Threshold" type actions correspond to actions consisting of reaching a "threshold value" via a dice roll :
- if the result of the dice roll is lower than the "threshold value": the action fails
- if the result of the dice roll is higher than the "threshold value": the action is successful.
The calculations incorporate the following rules:
- a relaunch applies before resolution of any modifiers,
- an unmodified roll of 1 is always a failure,
- an unmodified roll of 6 is always a success.
1- Action of the “threshold” type carried out with 1D6
The following lists present the probabilities of success for a "threshold" type action carried out with 1D6 :
- without recovery,
- with re-rolling of rolls of 1,
- with re-rolling of failed throws,
- with modifiers (+1 or -1).
Action succeeds on 2+ :
-
Without modifier:
- Without follow-up: 83%
- Reroll of 1: 97%
- Rerolling failed throws: 97%
-
Modifier +1:
- Without follow-up: 83%
- Reroll of 1: 97%
- Rerolling failed throws: 97%
-
Modifier of -1:
- Without follow-up: 67%
- Reroll of 1: 78%
- Rerolling failed throws: 78%
Action succeeds on 3+ :
-
Without modifier:
- Without follow-up: 67%
- Reroll of 1: 78%
- Rerolling failed throws: 89%
-
Modifier +1:
- Without follow-up: 83%
- Reroll of 1: 97%
- Rerolling failed throws: 97%
-
Modifier of -1:
- Without recovery: 50%
- Reroll of 1: 58% throws
- Rerolling failed throws: 67%
Action succeeds on 4+ :
-
Without modifier:
- Without recovery: 50%
- Reroll of 1: 58% throws
- Reroll failed throws: 75%
-
Modifier +1:
- Without follow-up: 67%
- Reroll of 1: 78%
- Rerolling failed throws: 89%
-
Modifier of -1:
- Without follow-up: 33%
- Reroll of 1: 39% throws
- Reroll failed rolls: 50%
Action succeeding on 5+ :
-
Without modifier:
- Without follow-up: 33%
- Reroll of 1: 39%
- Rerolling failed throws: 56%
-
Modifier +1:
- Without recovery: 50%
- Reroll of 1: 58% throws
- Reroll failed throws: 75%
-
Modifier of -1:
- Without recovery: 17%
- Reroll of 1: 19%
- Reroll failed throws: 28%
Action succeeds on 6+ :
-
Without modifier:
- Without recovery: 17%
- Rerolls 1:1 9%
- Reroll failed throws: 31%
-
Modifier +1:
- Without follow-up: 33%
- Reroll of 1: 39%
- Rerolling failed throws: 56%
-
Modifier of -1:
- Without recovery: 17%
- Reroll of 1: 19%
- Reroll failed throws: 31%
2- Action of the “threshold” type carried out with 2D6
Action by rolling 2D6 :
-
Without recovery:
- Success on 2+: 100%
- Success rate on 3+: 97%
- Success rate on 4+: 92%
- Success rate on 5+: 83%
- Success rate on 6+: 72%
- Success rate on 7+: 58%
- Success rate on 8+: 42%
- Success rate on 9+: 28%
- Success rate on 10+: 17%
- Success rate on 11+: 8%
- Success on 12+: 3%
-
Re-rolling failed throws:
- Success on 2+: 100%
- Success rate on 3+: 99%
- Success rate on 4+: 99%
- Success rate on 5+: 97%
- Success rate on 6+: 92%
- Success rate on 7+: 83%
- Success rate on 8+: 66%
- Success rate on 9+: 48%
- Success rate on 10+: 31%
- Success rate on 11+: 16%
- Success on 12+: 5%
To find out more, click here: WARFO GTO
